March 21, 2022
New and established U.S. subscription streaming video services continue to drive Western Europe over-the-top video revenue growth.
Western European OTT TV episode and movie revenue is projected to reach $45 billion in 2027; up from $26 billion in 2021, according to new data from Digital TV Research. The key countries driving revenue over the next five years include the U.K. with $4 billion, Germany and France with $3 billion each, and Italy with $2 billion.
The U.K. is the largest OTT revenue earner in Western Europe. Its $6 billion in revenue provided 24% of the region’s 2021 total. The U.K.’s $10 billion in 2027 revenue will represent 22% of the region’s total.
Three U.S.-based streaming platforms will not only drive European growth but could also control half the world’s SVOD subscriptions by 2027. Despite its maturity, Netflix is slated to add 60 million subscribers by and 2027.
Disney+ is projected to overtake Netflix in subscription terms in 2028. Disney+ should add 146 million subscribers by 2027 to take its total to 276 million.
HBO Max is slated to add 65 million subscribers to total 90 million in 2027. Paramount+ [including Sky/Showtime] is projected to increase by 55 million subscribers to reach 88 million by 2027.
“SVOD far exceeds any other revenue source for Western Europe,” Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research, said in a statement. “SVOD will increase by $13 billion between 2021 and 2027 to $30 billion. AVOD will add $6 billion to reach $12 billion.”
SVOD subscriptions are projected to reach 258 million by 2027, up from 164 million by end-2021. Four countries would provide two-thirds of the total. Germany would overtake the U.K. in 2026.
As SVOD continues to grow, Western Europe is slated to lose 7 million pay-TV subscribers by 2027 to reach 100 million. Pay-TV subscriber counts would fall for 14 of the 18 Western European countries through 2027. Germany would lose 2 million subs, with the U.K. down by 1.4 million and France nearly 1 million.
“Pay-TV revenue will decline by $5 billion — 18% — between 2021 and 2027 to $22 billion,” Simon said. “The pay-TV subscriber count will drop by 7%, so revenues will fall faster — revealing lower TV ARPUs and less emphasis on TV from the operators. IPTV will overtake satellite TV in 2026 to become the most lucrative platform.”