Analyst: SVOD Subs in U.S. to Increase 56% by 2025 — Despite Market Maturity

Despite approaching market saturation, the number of domestic SVOD subscriptions will climb from 203 million in 2019 to 317 million by 2025, according to new data from Digital TV Research.

Even Netflix, the longest established platform, will add 10 million domestic subs in the period. This growth is overshadowed by Disney+ (27 million additions) and Hulu (22 million). Peacock, HBO Max and CBS All Access/Paramount+ will each add more subs than Netflix — largely due to their breadth of content not found on the SVOD pioneer. Six platforms will together bring in 94 million new subscribers [82%] from the 114 million total additions.

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“The depth of choice in the U.S. will not be replicated in any other country,” analyst Simon Murray said in a statement. “Eight U.S. platforms will have more than 10 million paying subs each by 2025. Disney+ will overtake [Disney-owned] Hulu by 2025.”

Report: Netflix a Fiscal Deal in Colombia; Less So in Iran

Netflix invented the loss-leader subscription streaming video-on-demand market, a business model that has essentially upended how Hollywood markets movies and TV shows to consumers.

But apparently that’s not enough of an incentive for some pundits.

An extensive report by London-based research firm Comparitech analyzed in which country Netflix  offered the best/least economic value to consumers.

In short, Netflix Colombia and Netflix India offer the best value to subscribers, while Netflix Iran  and Netflix Denmark offer the least value following analysis of 77 countries the Los Gatos, Calif.-based service offers service. The SVOD behemoth is available in 190 countries.

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Comparitech took the total number of movies and TV shows Netflix offers in country analyzed and then divided that number by the monthly subscription price — from basic to premium tier.

Notably, despite offering the most content in the United States, Netflix America did not rank among the Top 10 economically favorable (or unfavorable) markets for subscribers.

Indeed, the report found the United Kingdom fell out of the Top 10 when factoring in premium plans. The U.S. dropped to 18th from 13th when upgrading from basic to premium service.

Comparitech said the average cost of a title (worldwide) is $0.00202 for basic plan subscribers, $0.00134 for standard subs, and $0.00085 for premium.

Thus, the average Netflix sub globally pays 55% more per title for a basic plan than Colombians, and about 50% more per title for standard and premium plans than do subs in India.

Colombia also offers the least expensive Netflix monthly subscription at $4.90 per month for basic service. This is 60% less than the comparable basic plan in the United States; 50% cheaper than the premium plan.

On the flipside, basic subscribers ($9.99) in Iran pay an average of $0.00347 per title, based on a catalog of 2,301 titles, including 586 TV shows and 1,715 movies.

Basic subs ($14.84) in Denmark pay $0.00336 per title based on a catalog of 3,525 titles, including 1,063 TV shows and 2,462 movies.

Disney’s Pending Streaming Video Service Has Broad Consumer Awareness in the U.S. – Less So in the U.K.

Disney’s upcoming Nov. 11 launch of branded subscription streaming video service, Disney+, has been the media company’s primary focus in 2019.

New data from a survey of 2,500 Internet users in the United States by GlobalWebIndex found 35% of respondents cite remakes and sequels of noted Disney film brands for wanting to subscribe to Disney+.

Most coveted sequels include The Lion King (50%), Frozen II (34%) and Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (29%).

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More than 60% are willing to pay upwards of $20 monthly for the new $6.99 service, with 71% expecting Disney+ will offer family-friendly programming.

Other drivers include Pixar (46%), nostalgic content from childhood (42%), Marvel (38%) and exclusive content exclusive to the platform (38%).

Meanwhile, across the pond in the United Kingdom, consumer awareness of Disney+ is less evident.

The same study found just 35% of respondents in the region were aware of the platform. Of those who knew about it, about 51% said they would be willing to pay £10 monthly ($12.40) — about half what respondents said they currently pay for all combined over-the-top video services.

Indeed, 71% of potential Disney+ subs currently subscribe to Netflix and another 37% use Amazon Prime Video. Of Netflix U.K. subs, 25% said they would try Disney+.

“With Pixar proving most appealing among content that could entice consumers to subscribe to Disney Plus, the recent success of Toy Story 4 in the box office will give Disney a lot of confidence in their ambition to win a strong foothold in the U.K. video streaming market,” Chris Beer, senior trends analyst at GlobalWedIndex, said in a statement. “The most important focus for the new service will be paying close attention to the content demands of its diverse, family-oriented audience.”

Report: Global SVOD Subs to Increase 86% Through 2024

The global number of SVOD subscriptions will increase 86%, or 439 million subs from 2018 to 2024 to 947 million. SVOD sub growth will climb by 119 million members in 2019, according to new data from Digital TV Research.

As the gross subscription total races towards 1 billion, the net sub count will rise by 175 million through 2024 to reach 531 million. This means that the average SVOD sub will pay for 1.78 subscriptions by 2024 – up from 1.43 in 2018.








Fifteen countries — led by United States and China — will have more than 10 million SVOD subscribers each by 2024 – collectively providing 86% of the global total.

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By 2024, Netflix will contribute 203 million subs (21% of the global total), Amazon Prime Video 125 million (13%), China 289 million (31%), Disney+ 75 million and 255 million other SVOD subs. Netflix and Prime Video do not operate independently in China.

“China overtook the U.S. in 2018 to become the gross SVOD subscription leader,” analyst Simon Murray said in a statement. “These two countries will continue to dominate the world stage. China and the U.S. will together account for 59% of the global total by 2024. However, this proportion is down from 63% in 2018; indicating that other countries are growing faster.”

Research: Global SVOD Subs to Top 777 million by 2023

To some spiritual believers, the number 777 signifies luck, good fortune, miracles, optimism and fulfilled dreams. All of which apparently is in the cards for the subscription video-on-demand market.

New data from Digital TV Research suggests global SVOD subscriptions will top 777 million (excluding free trials) by 2023, an increase of 409 million subs from the end of 2017.

China and the United States will generate more than 50% of the global SVOD subscriber count by 2023, but in addition, nine other countries will have more than 10 million SVOD subs each.

China will have the most SVOD subs – despite multiple subscriptions being commonplace in the U.S. China will have 235 million SVOD subs – up from 97 million in 2017. An impressive tally considering Netflix and Amazon Prime Video do not operate in the country.

“The U.S. will have 208 million SVOD subs; up by an impressive 76 million on 2017 despite its relative maturity,” Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research, said in a statement. “Its share of the global market will fall from 36% in 2017 to 27% by 2023.”

By 2023, Netflix will contribute 192 million subs (25% of the 777 million subs), Amazon Prime Video 120 million (15%), China 235 million (30%). Another 230 million (30%) SVOD subs will come from third-party services.

Prime Video launched in 200 countries (except China, North Korea, Crimea and Syria) in late 2016 – like Netflix. DTV Research projects 120 million Prime Video subs by 2023 – double the 2017 total. However, 110 million of the total will be in Amazon Prime territories, and therefore will not directly pay for the video platform.

SVOD revenue will reach $69 billion by 2023; up by nearly $44 billion since 2017. The U.S. will remain the SVOD revenue leader by a considerable distance – adding $17 billion between 2017 and 2023 to take its total to $29 billion.

China Tops U.K. in TV Content Production, Trailing the U.S.

China has overtaken the United Kingdom in television programming production, becoming the second-largest market in the world after the United States, according to new data from IHS Markit.

TV programming expenditures in China, including online platforms, hit 73 billion yuan ($10.9 billion) in 2017, followed by the U.K. at $10 billion, while the U.S. led spending with $58.3 billion.

“The growth in China’s TV programming spending is largely due to aggressive content investment by online companies Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent,” Kia Ling, senior research analyst at IHS Markit, said in a statement. “These three giants have upped their spending on content origination and acquisition for their respective video platforms iQiyi, Youku Tudou and Tencent Video.”

Broadcaster advertising revenue growth in China plateaued in 2017, reaching 83 billion yuan ($12.3 billion), but online revenue is on the rise, driven by greater video advertising and subscription income. TV broadcasters spent 43 billion yuan ($6.4 billion) on programming in 2017, compared to 30 billion yuan ($4.5 billion) spent by online platform companies.

“As digital entertainment viewership gains traction, advertisers are gradually moving more of their budgets to digital platforms,” Teoh said. “We expect online companies to overtake TV broadcaster spending in 2018, if the content creation spree persists.”

Original programming made up 49% of all Chinese programming in 2017, followed by acquired programming at 46%, and sports programming at 5%.

IHS Markit expects this split to remain relatively consistent over the next five years.

“Broadcasters and online platform companies are increasingly creating their own content, not only to lure paying subscribers, but also for merchandising, mobile game development and other new revenue streams,” said Teoh. “In addition, distribution of linear TV and online platform content can generate lucrative returns, in both domestic and foreign markets.”

Despite the increased focus on original programming in China, acquired content will remain an integral part of broadcasters’ content strategy, as many companies still rely heavily on acquired content. The large and growing consumer appetite for global sporting events, particularly online, is also expected to boost spending on sports programming.

“While online platform companies are increasing China’s TV programming expenditure, they should be concerned by user retention and sustainability of content costs,” added Teoh. “In order to retain existing subscribers and attract new ones, online platform companies are investing heavily to create and acquire exclusive content. Unlike Netflix, these companies still rely substantially on advertising and sponsorship. If the cost of content continues to surge, such aggressive investment will become unsustainable.”