Global Pay-TV to Add 35 Million Subs by 2025 — Driven by Online TV

Pay-TV consumption in the United States is declining, but globally, there’s still life in the distribution channel — thanks to online TV.

New data from London-based Digital TV Research suggests there will be 35 million new pay-TV subs through 2025, with the global base reaching 1.06 billion across more than 138 countries.

Driving growth is online TV, which includes platforms such as Sling TV, Hulu with Live TV, AT&T TV Now and YouTube TV in the United States. IPTV will add 84 million subs through 2025, topping 391 million. Online TV will grow its global market share in pay-TV from 30% in 2019 to 37% in 2025.

Satellite TV, which is projected to lose another 4 million subs through 2025, will generate 20% of pay-TV subs, down from 21% in 2019.
Cable will decline 7%, accounting for 40% of all pay-TV subs by 2025 — a near 50% drop from 74% market share in 2010. There will be 430 million cable TV subs (both analog and digital) by 2025, 101 million fewer than in 2010.

“Our forecasts are based on the assumption that professional sports will restart in August following relaxations in the COVID-19 lockdown,” analyst Simon Murray said in a statement. “If this does not happen, then pay-TV will experience considerable churn.”

Eastern Europe Ups Digital Pay-TV Service

When the Disney+ subscription streaming video service expanded into Europe last month, the launch excluded Eastern Europe. Netflix and Amazon Prime Video focus their efforts on countries such Germany, Italy, France, Spain, in addition to the United Kingdom and Scandinavia. And less so in Eastern European countries including Belarus, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Moldova, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, the Ukraine and Russia.

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New data from Digital TV Research suggests Eastern Europe will add about 10 million digital pay-TV subscribers through 2025, bring its total consumer base to 77 million households — down from a peak of 83 million pay-TV households in 2018. The region still had 15.4 million analog cable subscribers by end-2019.

“The number of pay-TV subscribers in Eastern Europe will [increase] to 78 million in 2025,” principal analyst Simon Murray said in a statement. “Migration married with low birth rates mean that populations will fall in 14 of the 22 countries that we cover between 2019 and 2025.”

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Report: Asia Pacific SVOD Subs to Reach 417 Million by 2025

Despite the negative impact from the coronavirus and the Chinese economic downturn, Asia Pacific will have 417 million streaming video-on-demand subscriptions by 2025, up from 269 million in 2019, according to new data from Digital TV Research.

The London-based company said China would have 269 million SVOD subs in 2025 — or 65% of the region’s total. India will supply a further 45 million — more than double its 2019 total.

Three Chinese companies will top the DTR’s Asia Pacific SVOD subscriber rankings in 2025 — with two recording 100 million subscribers. Netflix and Amazon Prime Video, which do not operate independently in China, will take fourth and fifth places respectively.

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“The top five platforms [Tencent Video, Iqiyi, Netflix, Disney+ and Youku Tudou] will account for two-thirds of the region’s SVOD revenue by 2025,” analyst Simon Murray said in a statement.

Netflix’s revenue will more than double between 2019 and 2025 to $3.19 billion. Disney+ will generate $1 billion in 2025. Asia Pacific SVOD total revenue will reach $18.25 billion in 2025; up by $8 billion on 2019.

“These forecasts are lower than our previous edition,” Murray said.

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Analyst: Pay-TV to Lose $50 Billion in Revenue by 2025 — Despite Accelerated Broadband Growth

With the pay-TV industry seeing greater numbers of subscribers exiting toward alternatives such as over-the-top video, new data from Digital TV Research suggests domestic operators will see revenue fall by $50 billion to $62 billion in 2025.

The report says pay-TV revenue in North America, which peaked in 2015 at $112 billion, will see declines across all distribution channels, including cable (down $22 billion, including $3 billion from analog and $19 billion from digital). Satellite distribution will fall by $21 billion and online TV (Sling TV, AT&T TV Now, Hulu with Live TV, etc.) will drop by $7 billion.

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“The loss of 42 million pay-TV subscribers between 2010 and 2025 is mostly responsible for this decline,” Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research, said in a statement. “Operators now put more emphasis on broadband connections than on traditional pay TV channels.”

Indeed, Comcast added 442,000 broadband subscribers in the most-recent quarter, AT&T added 191,000 subs, Charter Communications (Spectrum) added 339,000 subs, and Verizon added 35,000 Fios Internet customers.

“Subscribers are turning against high traditional pay-TV fees by seeking cheaper alternatives,” Murray said. “OTT allows viewers to see what they want when they want — they are not tied to the channels’ schedules. The value of the linear schedule for recorded programming is rapidly diminishing.”

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Report: Global SVOD Subs to Increase 86% Through 2024

The global number of SVOD subscriptions will increase 86%, or 439 million subs from 2018 to 2024 to 947 million. SVOD sub growth will climb by 119 million members in 2019, according to new data from Digital TV Research.

As the gross subscription total races towards 1 billion, the net sub count will rise by 175 million through 2024 to reach 531 million. This means that the average SVOD sub will pay for 1.78 subscriptions by 2024 – up from 1.43 in 2018.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fifteen countries — led by United States and China — will have more than 10 million SVOD subscribers each by 2024 – collectively providing 86% of the global total.

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By 2024, Netflix will contribute 203 million subs (21% of the global total), Amazon Prime Video 125 million (13%), China 289 million (31%), Disney+ 75 million and 255 million other SVOD subs. Netflix and Prime Video do not operate independently in China.

“China overtook the U.S. in 2018 to become the gross SVOD subscription leader,” analyst Simon Murray said in a statement. “These two countries will continue to dominate the world stage. China and the U.S. will together account for 59% of the global total by 2024. However, this proportion is down from 63% in 2018; indicating that other countries are growing faster.”

Eastern Europe to Top 26 Million SVOD Subscribers by 2024

Eastern Europe is finally getting the over-the-top video bug.

New data from Digital TV Research says the region will have 26.19 million SVOD subscriptions by 2024; up from 10 million subs at the end of 2018.

Russia will account for 8.77 million subscriptions, with Poland adding 6.32 million. Together, they will account 58% of the region’s total.

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The report suggests Russia became the SVOD subscription [an SVOD subscriber can have more than one subscription] market leader in 2018 by overtaking Poland. However, it will take until 2023 for Russia to generate greater SVOD revenue than Poland as its subscribers pay lower fees.

By comparison, Netflix will have 8 million subs across 22 Eastern European countries by 2024, double its 2018 result and representing 30% of the regional total.

“The imminent launches of both Disney+ and Apple TV+ will further boost the sector,” principal analyst Simon Murray said in a statement. “We forecast nearly 3 million subscribers for Disney+ by 2024. Apple TV+ will be more modest.”

DTR: Netflix’s North American Market Share to Fall by 2024

Despite adding 10 million subscribers in the first quarter (ended March 31), and 31 million subs in 2018, Netflix’s market share in North America is projected to decline from 37% to 25% by 2024, according to new data from Digital TV Research.

The London-based research firm based the decline in part on pending OTT services launches from Disney, Apple, WarnerMedia and Comcast. The report contends the number of SVOD subscriptions (movies, linear channels and TV episodes) — excluding platforms such as sports services — in North America increasing by 110 million to 270 million from 160 million in 2018.

The report said the data represents gross subscriptions as many households include more than one SVOD platform.

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Digital TV Research forecasts that 77.8% of TV households (94 million) will subscribe to at least one SVOD platform by 2024. The average SVOD household will pay for nearly three (2.89) SVOD subscriptions.

This compares to 70% of TV households (84 million) TV households subscribing to at least one SVOD platform by end-2018. The average SVOD subscriber paid for nearly two (1.91) SVOD platforms at end-2018.

“Several high profile SVOD launches are imminent,” Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research, said in a statement. “We expect that Disney+ will have 25 million U.S. subscribers by 2024. Apple TV+’s growth will be more modest at 8 million.”

Report: Netflix Driving Latin America SVOD Growth

On July 11, 2011 Netflix announced plans to expand service into South America spearheaded by Brazil. The SVOD pioneer at the time had 23 million subscribers in the United States and Canada – the latter Netflix’s first foreign expansion.

Leapfrog to the present and Latin America is forecast to reach more than 51 million SVOD subs by 2024 – about double the 27.1 million recorded at the end of 2018, according to new data from Digital TV Research.

The top six regional platforms – driven by Netflix – will account for 85% of the region’s paying SVOD subscribers by end-2024.

Netflix is projected to reach 26.3 million paying subscribers in 2024 – or about 50% of the region’s total – but down from 66% market share at the end of last year.

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Simon Murray, principal Analyst at Digital TV Research, said Netflix’s declining market share in Latin America is due to the rise in ad-supported VOD and subsidized SVOD platforms in the region.

“Several mobile and pay TV operators provide free and limited SVOD platforms to their top paying subscribers. This stifles pay SVOD take-up,” Murray said in a statement.

SVOD subscription revenue will drive overall over-the-top video revenue across 19 countries with $6 billion of the projected $8.25 billion in revenue through 2024. The latter up 147% from revenue of $3.33 billion in 2018.

Brazil will remain the SVOD revenue leader by 2024 – supplying 40% of the regional total. Mexico will provide another 24%. Combined, Brazil and Mexico will account for 66% of the region’s SVOD revenue by 2024.

 

Report: Global Pay-TV, SVOD Subs to Reach 1.87 Billion by 2023

Consumers continue to covet video entertainment in record numbers.

New data from Digital TV Research projects 1.877 billion combined global pay-TV, subscription streaming video subscribers by 2023 – up 505 million (37%) subs from 1.372 billion at the end of 2017. SVOD subs will more than double, but traditional pay-TV will add just 94 million subs.

“China is the brightest star by adding 171 million subscriptions during this period to take its total to 610 million,” Simon Murray, analyst at Digital TV Research, said in a statement.

Murray said China would expand pay-TV subs by 32 million to 375 million, but SVOD will skyrocket by 138 million to 235 million subs. India will add 49 million pay TV and SVOD subs to total 210 million in 2023.

In the United States, traditional pay-TV subs will fall by 10 million to 80 million. Multiple subscriptions per household will push the SVOD total from 132 million to 208 million. Combined pay-TV/SVOD subs will reach 289 million, up from 222 million at the end of 2017.

Overall, subscription revenue will increase by 11% ($25.2 billion) to $251 billion between 2017 and 2023. Traditional pay-TV revenue will drop by $18.5 billion to $183 billion. However, SVOD revenue will climb by $43.7 billion to $69 billion. SVOD’s share of the total will increase from 11% in 2017 to 27% in 2023.

The U.S. will remain the subscription revenue leader despite its total falling from $108 billion in 2017 to $105 billion in 2023. Pay-TV subscription revenue will drop by $20 billion, with SVOD additions not enough to make up the shortfall.

Digital TV Research said the figures are gross subscriptions. One household could have more than one subscription. For example, a household subscribing to pay satellite TV and Netflix would be counted as two subscriptions. Some homes pay for more than one SVOD platform.