Digital TV Research: Streaming Video Revenue to Grow by $89 Billion Through 2027

Global revenues from OTT TV episode and movies are projected to reach $224 billion in 2027, up from $135 billion on 2021, according to analysis firm Digital TV Research. About $21 billion is expected to be added in 2022 alone.

SVOD revenues will climb by $48 billion between 2021 and 2027 to total $136 billion. AVOD revenues will increase by $37 billion between 2021 and 2027 to reach $70 billion.

From the 138 countries covered, the top five will command 65% of global OTT revenues by 2027. OTT revenues will exceed $1 billion in 25 countries by 2027, up from 17 countries in 2021.

Subscribe HERE to the FREE Media Play News Daily Newsletter!

“The U.S. will command 45% of global revenue by 2027,” Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research, said in a statement. “We forecast that U.S. streaming revenue will climb by $45 billion between 2021 and 2027 to reach $106 billion.”

Digital TV Research: Global SVOD Subscriptions to Reach 1.69 Billion by 2027 — Led by Six U.S. Streamers

The number of subscription streaming video-on-demand subscribers is projected to increase by 485 million subs to reach 1.69 billion subs through 2027, according to new data from Digital TV Research. Six U.S.-based platforms — led by Netflix — will account for 988 million paying SVOD subscribers by 2027, up from 612 million in 2021.

Netflix will add 31 million subs through 2027, despite losing 4 million subs in North America.

Subscribe HERE to the FREE Media Play News Daily Newsletter!

Disney+ is projected to overtake Netflix in total subs by 2025. The platform will add 144 million subs to take its total to 274 million

Disney+ Hotstar will roll out to 13 Asian countries by 2027. These countries will supply 114 million (42%) of the global Disney+ subscriber total, but only $1.58 billion (11%) of Disney+’ revenue [$14.7 billion] by 2027.

Netflix will remain the revenue winner, with $34 billion by 2027 — similar to Disney+, HBO Max and Paramount+ combined. However, the Netflix total is only $4 billion more than 2021 as subscriber growth decelerates and average-revenue-per-subscriber is squeezed.

“Our Netflix forecasts for 2027 are 29 million lower than our February update — at 253 million,” analyst Simon Murray said in a statement. “Netflix needs to boost its content to counter its fresher and cheaper rivals.”

Digital TV Research: Global AVOD Revenue to Reach $70 Billion by 2027

Ad-supported revenue for TV series and movies will reach $70 billion in 2027, up from $33 billion in 2021, according to new data from Digital TV Research. The London-based research firm said the U.S. AVOD market will grow by $19 billion to $31 billion in 2027 — remaining the largest country by far.

“The U.S. has the world’s most sophisticated advertising industry by some distance, plus AVOD choice is greater in the U.S. than anywhere else,” Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research, said in a statement. “The U.S. will account for 46% of the global AVOD market by 2027, up from 39% in 2021.”

Second-placed China slumped in 2020 due to its economic downturn, according to the report. It will take until 2024 for China to better its 2019 total. In 2021, the government clamped down on fan-based culture, which resulted in far fewer reality shows from OTT video platforms — and less viewer demand.

Subscribe HERE to the FREE Media Play News Daily Newsletter!

Digital TV Research: End of Ukraine War Would Jumpstart Eastern European SVOD Growth

An end to Russia’s unlawful invasion of Ukraine would help jumpstart SVOD growth in Eastern Europe, with the region generating 43 million SVOD subscriptions by 2027, up from 23 million at the end of 2021, according to new data from Digital TV Research.

With the withdrawal of SVOD platforms from Russia and unlikely to return before 2027, London-based Digital Research contends these platforms only made a limited impact in Russia, so the subscriber losses are not that great.

“Russia is not as dependent on Western content as many other European countries,” principal analyst Simon Murray said in a statement. “However, sanctions [continue to] result in economic hardship that will adversely affect Russian household spend.”

Murray assumes that Russia will withdraw from Ukraine before the end of 2022.

“After the Russian withdrawal, we expect massive investment in Ukraine by Western companies/governments as well as most refugees returning home eventually,” he said. “It will take some time to rebuild the economy and for homes to spend on entertainment.”

Poland will become market leader in 2026 despite having a much lower population than Russia. Poland and Russia (if the war with Ukraine ends) will account for 64% of the region’s SVOD subscribers by 2027, down from 79% in 2021 as other countries grow faster.
 

 

Netflix will continue to lead the Eastern European SVOD sector with 8.18 million subs by 2027, up from 5.82 million at the end of 2021. Disney+ will boast 4.69 million subscribers by 2027 despite launching as recently as this June.

“HBO Max launched in March, with 3.11 million paying subscribers expected by 2027,” Murray said. “Many more homes continue to receive HBO online as part of their pay TV subscription.”

Digital TV Research: Asia Pacific OTT Video Revenue to Grow Despite Chinese Crackdowns on Content

Sales, rental and streaming revenue of episodic content and movies across 22 Asia Pacific countries is expected to reach $52 billion in 2027; up by 62% from the $32 billion in 2021, according to new data from Digital TV Research. From the $20 billion additional revenue, China would add $3 billion, India $3 billion, South Korea $3 billion and Japan $5 billion. Indian revenue would more than double.

Asia Pacific subscription VOD revenue would reach $28 billion by 2027, up from $18 billion in 2021. Ad-supported VOD is projected to grow by $8 billion to $19 billion by 2027.

Much of the growth would occur outside China due in large part to the Chinese government’s clampdown on fan-based reality productions hard, resulting in SVOD subscriber growth deceleration.

Subscribe HERE to the FREE Media Play News Daily Newsletter!

Market leader Tencent Video March 23 reported only a 1% increase in SVOD subscriptions for 2021. The situation was worse for China’s No. 2 SVOD service iQiyi, which lost 6 million subscribers in 2021 to take its total to 96.4 million. Netflix, Disney+, Amazon Prime Video and other U.S. SVOD services are not allowed to operate in China.

“Can one country make that much difference?” analyst Simon Murray asked in a note. “China was responsible for 37% of Asia Pacific’s OTT revenue in 2021. Luckily, there is plenty of growth elsewhere.”

U.S. Streamers Driving Western European OTT Video Revenue/Subscriber Growth

New and established U.S. subscription streaming video services continue to drive Western Europe over-the-top video revenue growth.

Western European OTT TV episode and movie revenue is projected to reach $45 billion in 2027; up from $26 billion in 2021, according to new data from Digital TV Research. The key countries driving revenue over the next five years include the U.K. with $4 billion, Germany and France with $3 billion each, and Italy with $2 billion.

The U.K. is the largest OTT revenue earner in Western Europe. Its $6 billion in revenue provided 24% of the region’s 2021 total. The U.K.’s $10 billion in 2027 revenue will represent 22% of the region’s total.

Three U.S.-based streaming platforms will not only drive European growth but could also control half the world’s SVOD subscriptions by 2027. Despite its maturity, Netflix is slated to add 60 million subscribers by and 2027.

Subscribe HERE to the FREE Media Play News Daily Newsletter!

Disney+ is projected to overtake Netflix in subscription terms in 2028. Disney+ should add 146 million subscribers by 2027 to take its total to 276 million.

HBO Max is slated to add 65 million subscribers to total 90 million in 2027. Paramount+ [including Sky/Showtime] is projected to increase by 55 million subscribers to reach 88 million by 2027.

“SVOD far exceeds any other revenue source for Western Europe,” Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research, said in a statement. “SVOD will increase by $13 billion between 2021 and 2027 to $30 billion. AVOD will add $6 billion to reach $12 billion.”

SVOD subscriptions are projected to reach 258 million by 2027, up from 164 million by end-2021. Four countries would provide two-thirds of the total. Germany would overtake the U.K. in 2026.

As SVOD continues to grow, Western Europe is slated to lose 7 million pay-TV subscribers by 2027 to reach 100 million. Pay-TV subscriber counts would fall for 14 of the 18 Western European countries through 2027. Germany would lose 2 million subs, with the U.K. down by 1.4 million and France nearly 1 million.

“Pay-TV revenue will decline by $5 billion — 18% — between 2021 and 2027 to $22 billion,” Simon said. “The pay-TV subscriber count will drop by 7%, so revenues will fall faster — revealing lower TV ARPUs and less emphasis on TV from the operators. IPTV will overtake satellite TV in 2026 to become the most lucrative platform.”

Report: U.S. Streamers to Help Up Latin American SVOD Revenue to $14 Billion by 2027

After a sluggish start, consumer adoption of subscription streaming VOD in Latin America is proliferating. Revenue from SVOD for 19 Latin American countries will double from around $7 billion to $14 billion by 2027. This growth comes despite the poor economic situations in most countries.

Driving the surge are seven U.S.-based platforms — Netflix, Amazon Prime Video, Disney+, Star+, Paramount+, Apple TV+ and HBO Max, which will account for 90% of the region’s 145 million paying SVOD subscriptions by end-2027.

“Latin America is usually the first stop in international expansion for the U.S.-based SVOD platforms,” Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research, said in a statement. “How platforms adapt in the region acts as a template for further global expansion.”

Subscribe HERE to the FREE Media Play News Daily Newsletter!

 

Digital TV Research: China, U.S. to Account for Almost 50% of Global Streaming Video Market by 2027

As the subscription streaming video market explodes, new data from Digital TV Research suggests that global SVOD subscriptions will increase by 550 million between 2021 and 2027 to reach 1.75 billion. China and the U.S. together will account for 48% of the world’s total by 2027.

Five U.S.-based platforms (Netflix, Amazon Prime Video, Disney+, HBO Max and Paramount+) will control half the world’s SVOD subscriptions by 2027. Despite its maturity, Netflix should add 60 million subs over the next five years.

Subscribe HERE to the FREE Media Play News Daily Newsletter!

Disney+ is projected to overtake Netflix in subs in 2028. Disney+ should add 146 million subs to take its total to 276 million — with about 106 million subs representing the 13 Asian countries under the Hotstar brand Disney acquired in its 20th Century Fox purchase.

HBO Max is projected to add 65 million subs to total 90 million, while Paramount+ (including SkyShowtime) should increase by 55 million subs to reach 88 million by 2027.

“China and the U.S. had a similar number of gross subscriptions by end-2021,” Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research, said in a statement. “Due to government pressure, China’s growth is decelerating, with 374 million subs by 2027. The U.S. will continue to grow, with 456 million subscriptions expected [in the next five years].”

Digital TV Research: U.S. to Add 104 million SVOD Subs by 2027

Driven by the arrival of new services such as Paramount+, HBO Max, Peacock and Discovery+, the gross number of SVOD subscriptions in the U.S. will climb from 354 million at the end of 2021 to 458 million in 2027, according to new data from Digital TV Research.

About 86% of TV households will subscribe to at least one SVOD platform by 2027. The average SVOD household will pay for 4.37 SVOD services in the next five years.

Subscribe HERE to the FREE Media Play News Daily Newsletter!

As market leader and pioneer, Netflix will add 2 million North American subs through 2027 to lead all platforms with more than 69 million subs. Platforms such as Disney+ (12 million additions) at more than 51 million subs, Paramount+ (+26 million, 52 million) and HBO Max (+31 million, 51 million) will be the big gainers.

“Some [observers] claimed recently that the U.S. SVOD market was at saturation point,” Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research, said in a statement. “Although we expect some deceleration for more established players, there is still plenty of growth to be had for the younger platforms such as Disney+, Paramount+ and Max.”

Updated Projections Delay Disney+ Passing Netflix Sub Count to 2027

What a difference 90 days makes. Disney+, the SVOD considered most-likely to challenge market behemoth Netflix, is now putting the brakes on that hype. Disney+ is still poised to pass market leader Netflix by 2027 — two years later than originally projected, according to new data from Digital TV Research.

The U.K.-based firm says the five major U.S.-based streaming platforms (which include Hulu, Amazon Prime Video and HBO Max) will control 53% of the world’s 1.7 billion SVOD subscriptions by 2026. That equates to a collective 910 million subscriptions, up 55% from 585 million subs this year. Netflix will remain the largest player, adding 53 million subs to reach 275 million by 2026.

Subscribe HERE to the FREE Media Play News Daily Newsletter!

“Our previous forecasts based on June 2021 results estimated that Disney+ would overtake Netflix in 2025,” analyst Simon Murray said in a statement. “Based on the September 2021 results, we now expect that this will happen in 2027.”

Disney+ will remain the biggest sub driver, adding 140 million subs through 2026, to up its total to 271 million. About 102 million Disney+ subscribers (38% of the total) in 2026 will be in 13 Asian countries under the Hotstar brand Disney acquired through the 2019 Fox assets transaction.

“Disney+ only started in six new countries during 2021,” Murray said. “Delayed from 2021, the Eastern Europe launches will take place in 2022. This is likely to push back the remaining Asian launches to 2023.”

Separately, HBO Max is projected to have 83 million subs by 2026, up from 29 million by the end of this year. Future launches include territories where it has pay-TV operations: Eastern Europe in 2022 and the rest of Asia (probably in 2023).