Digital TV Research: U.S. Streaming Revenue to Top $92 Billion by 2029

Global revenue from the streaming distribution of TV shows and movies is projected to top $228 billion in 2029, up $64 billion, or 39%, from $164 billion in 2023 — with $92.1 billion of that revenue in 2029 coming from the United States, according to new Digital TV analysis.

About $15 billion in revenue will be added globally in 2024 alone.

Subscription streaming VOD would remain the principal revenue source, growing by $30 billion through 2029 to $139 billion. Ad-supported VOD revenue will reach $68 billion by 2029, up by $29 billion from $39 billion in 2023.

“Ten countries will add at least $2 billion — or $42 billion cumulatively (66% of additional revenue) through 2029,” Simon Murray, analyst at Digital TV Research, said in a statement. “The U.S. will remain the dominant streaming territory … with revenue climbing by $16 billion to reach $92 billion.”

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Western European Digital Movie, TV Revenue to Reach $48 Billion by 2029, Led by Netflix

Western European OTT TV episode and movie revenue is projected to reach $48 billion in 2029; up from $31 billion in 2023, according to analysis from Digital TV Research. The United Kingdom is projected to contribute $10 billion in 2029, Germany $9 billion, Italy $5 billion and France $7 billion.

SVOD behemoth Netflix will lead market share at 10.7%, followed by Disney+ at 4.9%, and Prime Video and Paramount+ at 1.9% each. Other AVOD and SVOD services will combine for 12.5% and 8.9% market share, respectively.

“We expect that Netflix, Disney+, Max and Paramount+ together will generate AVOD streaming revenue of $2.4 billion by 2029 — with a further $16.2 billion from SVOD,” analyst Simon Murray said in a statement.

Digital TV Research: Latin America to Have 165 Million SVOD Subs by 2029

Latin America will have 165 million SVOD subscribers by the end of 2029, up from 110 million at the end or 2023, according to analysis from Digital TV Research. Brazil would account for 59 million subscribers, with Mexico generating 43 million.

The majority of those will subscribe to Netflix, according to the projections.

The London-based research group says seven U.S.-based platforms (Netflix, Prime Video, Disney+, Disney-owned Star+, Paramount+, Apple TV+ and Max) will account for 83% of the region’s paying SVOD subscriptions by the end of 2029.

Netflix will add 9 million subs through 2029, with Disney+ adding 8 million, Max adding another 10 million and Paramount+ adding 6 million. Globoplay, only available in Brazil, will take another 8% of the total.

“All of the major U.S. platforms are very active in Latin America. Another dimension is added by local players such as Globo and Televisa’s Vix services,” analyst Simon Murray said in a statement.

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Digital TV Research: North American Digital Movie/TV Sales, Rental Revenue to Reach $7.3 Billion by 2029

The digital sales of movies and TV shows in North America, combined with transactional VOD revenue, is projected to reach a combined $7.3 billion in 2029 — up almost 9% from $6.7 billion in revenue in 2024, according to new data from Digital TV Research. This year’s revenue is projected to increase $400 million from $6.3 billion in 2023.

The London-based research firm contends overall North American OTT revenue will reach $100 billion in 2029; up from $81 billion in 2023. The U.S. will contribute $16 billion from the $19 billion additional revenue, with Canada supplying the remainder. U.S. revenue will reach $92 billion in 2029.

North American ad-supported VOD revenue will increase 47% from $17 billion in 2023 to $25 billion in 2029. SVOD revenue will climb 17.5% from $57 billion in 2023 to $67 billion through 2029.

“Despite being the most mature OTT market by some distance, the U.S. sector continues to grow as cord-cutting show few signs of abating,” analyst Simon Murray wrote in a note. The U.S. is a unique market for digital [transactional/streaming] revenue, given the poor state of the pay-TV market and the wide OTT streaming choices.”

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Digital TV Research: U.S. Pay-TV Market Penetration to Fall Below 50% in 2024

U.S. household pay-TV market penetration will drop below 50% this year, according to new data from Digital TV Research.

The number of pay-TV subscribers in Canada and the United States will fall from a peak of 111 million subs in 2015 to 60 million subs in 2029, according to the data. The U.S. will lose 51% of its total pay-TV sub base (down by 49 million), with Canada down by 23% (3 million) during the period. North American pay-TV penetration will drop from 85% of all households in 2015 to 43% by 2029. 

“The number of North American pay-TV subscribers plummeted by 41 million between 2015 and 2023,” Simon Murray, analyst at Digital TV Research, said in a statement. “Subscription declines will slow, with a decrease of 10 million subscribers between 2023 and 2029.”

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Digital TV Research: SVOD Will Add 321 Million Global Subs, Topping 1.79 Billion by 2029

The global demand for subscription streaming VOD services continues to grow, despite price hikes and market saturation. New data from Digital TV Research predicts that global SVOD subscriptions will increase by 321 million between 2023 and 2029 to reach 1.79 billion. The United States will add 30 million subscriptions, led by Netflix, followed by Brazil (23 million sub adds) and India (27 million).

 

The six major U.S.-based platforms are expected to have a total of 946 million SVOD subscribers by 2029, up from 751 million in 2023. These platforms will collectively increase their subscriber bases by 196 million subscribers.

Netflix will remain the largest single platform, adding 44 million subscribers between 2023 and 2029 to take its total to 298 million. Disney+ will have more than 100 million subscribers fewer than Netflix, with significantly less investment and take-up in the Asia Pacific region.

London-based DTR said the forecasts assume that India-based Hotstar will continue as part of the Disney+ platform.

“Platforms now measure their success through their profitability,” analyst Simon Murray said in a statement. “This means that already-profitable Netflix will benefit more than its U.S.-based competitors.”

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Digital TV Research: Global Online TV Subs to Pass Cable in 2024

Online TV continues to gain traction worldwide despite remaining relatively stagnant in the United States. New data from Digital TV Research found that online TV will add 36 million subscribers between 2023 and 2029, to take its total to 412 million. IPTV overtook satellite TV subscribers in 2018 and is expected to overtake cable in 2024, according to the research group.

 

 

 

 

 

 

YouTube TV is the largest online TV  service in the United States with more than 6.3 million subscribers, followed by Hulu + Live TV  with more than 4 million subs.

“[Online TV] is the pay-TV winner,” analyst Simon Murray said in a statement.

The number of pay-TV subscribers across 138 countries will remain at just under 1 billion, with a slight annual decline until 2025, followed by a recovery thereafter.

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Global pay-TV penetration will reach 56% of all TV households by the end of 2023, falling slightly to 54% by the end of 2029. Through 2029, 82 countries will add pay-TV subs and 56 countries will lose subscribers. The United States will be the biggest loser — down by 10 million subscribers.

Digital TV Research: Global AVOD/SVOD Revenue to Reach $215 Billion by 2029

Revenue from subscription streaming and ad-supported services continues to skyrocket. New data from Digital TV Research finds that global over-the-top TV video episode and movies revenue will reach $215 billion in 2029, up by $53 billion – or 33% – from $162 billion in 2023.

The U.S. will remain the dominant region, despite its share of global revenue declining 8% to 38% from 46% this year. London-based DTR forecasts that U.S. revenue will climb almost 11% ($8 billion) between 2023 and 2029 to reach $82 billion from $74 billion.

SVOD will remain the principal revenue source, growing by 17.5% ($19 billion) between 2023 and 2029 to $127 billion from $108 billion. AVOD revenue will grow faster than SVOD.

“AVOD revenue for TV series and movies will reach $69 billion by 2029, up by $30 billion from $39 billion in 2023,” analyst Simon Murray said in a statement. “These figures are lower than our previous edition due to the global advertising slowdown and slower than expected rollouts of hybrid AVOD-SVOD platforms by the U.S. major platforms.”

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Digital TV Research: Global SVOD Revenue to Reach $127 Billion by 2029

Global subscription streaming VOD revenue is projected to reach $127 billion by 2029, up from $107 billion in 2023, according to analysis from Digital TV Research. The United States, which created the SVOD market through Netflix, Hulu and Roku in 2007, and China are projected to account for half of the 2029 total.

The U.S. would add $2 billion of the $20 billion extra SVOD revenue between 2023 and 2029, with Brazil, Germany, Japan and South Korea each up by $1 billion.

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The six big U.S.-based platforms would add $12 billion in SVOD revenue between 2023 and 2029 to take their combined total to $72 billion. Netflix would remain the SVOD revenue winner, with $34 billion expected by 2029 — more than Disney+, HBO Max and Paramount+ combined.

“The key metric for the main SVOD platforms has moved away from subscriber growth to profitability,” analyst Simon Murray said in a statement.

Digital TV Research: Asia Pacific SVOD Market Expanding Despite U.S. Services’ Diminished Presence

The Asia Pacific subscription streaming VOD market is projected to reach $49 billion in revenue by 2029, up from the $34 billion in 2023. This comes despite a rapidly maturing Chinese market, the world’s second largest, and India experiencing SVOD shake-up, according to new data from Digital TV Research.

China will account for 39% of the region’s total revenue by 2029, down from 47% in 2023 as other countries grow their SVOD markets faster. China is reaching SVOD maturity, with a poor ad-supported VOD sector at present. India’s SVOD sector was disrupted by Indian Premier League cricket converting to AVOD in 2023 after Disney+ Hotstar lost IPL streaming rights.

Asia Pacific’s SVOD revenue already overtook AVOD revenue in 2019. AVOD will recover, but will remain lower than SVOD. SVOD and AVOD revenue will climb by $4 billion and $9 billion respectively between 2023 and 2029.

The big six U.S.-based platforms, including Netflix, Prime Video, Disney+, Max, Apple TV+ and Paramount+ will account for only 18% of the region’s OTT revenue by 2029 – the lowest proportion for any region.

Market leader Netflix added 1.88 million Asian Pacific subscribers in the most-recent fiscal period, to end the period with 42.43 million.

“Disney now appears less keen on expanding Hotstar to the region’s developing markets as it is classified as a ‘non-core’ asset,” analyst Simon Murray said in a statement. “Warner Bros Discovery is yet to announce international plans for Max. And the Paramount+ Asian rollout will be very limited.”

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