Report: Western Europe SVOD Subscriptions to Reach 234 Million by 2026

The pending arrival of HBO Max, combined with Netflix, Amazon Prime Video and Disney+, will greatly affect subscription streaming video in Western Europe, according to new data from Digital TV Research. The region featuring Germany, the U.K., France, Portugal, Ireland, Holland, Spain, Italy, Luxemburg, Monaco, Lichtenstein, Belgium and Austria will have 234 million SVOD subs by 2026, up from 137 million subs at end-2020.

Despite losing market share, Netflix will remain the largest SVOD platform. Netflix will have 74 million paying subs by 2026 – up by 20 million from 2020. Disney+ will become the second largest platform by 2025, surpassing Amazon Prime Video. Now available in most Western European countries, Disney+ will have 55 million paying subs by 2026; up by 36 million on 2020.

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HBO Max will launch in the six countries where it already has operations – the Nordic countries, Portugal and Spain – before end-2021. However, Max will not start in some key European countries due to existing exclusive contracts. For example, HBO’s contract with Sky in Austria, Germany, Ireland, Italy and the U.K. lasts until 2025.

“If Max started across the region’s 18 countries in 2021, we estimate that it would amass 10 million subs by 2026. This will not happen, so its total will be 3.3 million across six countries by 2026,” analyst Simon Murray said in a statement.

Report: Disney+, HBO Max to Drive Eastern Europe SVOD Growth

The pending international launch of HBO Max and further expansion of Disney+ will contribute to Eastern Europe’s SVOD sector finally taking off in relation to long established market pushes in Western European territories as the U.K., France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the Nordics.

Digital TV Research forecasts 40 million SVOD subscriptions in Eastern Europe by 2026, up from 15 million at the end of 2020. From the 25 million additional subscriptions, Russia will generate 10 million and Poland 6 million.

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Netflix will have 12.29 million subscribers by 2026, more than double its 2020 total. Its Russian subscriber base will grow significantly due to its recently-signed partnership with National Media Group. Disney+ will have 5.8 million subs by 2026 despite only starting in mid-2021.

WarnerMedia will launch HBO Max in 2H21. Digital TV Research forecasts 1.22 million paying subs by 2026, with many more continuing to receive HBO online as part of their pay-TV subscription.

“There will still be plenty of room for growth beyond our forecast period as only 17% of the region’s TV households will subscribe to at least one SVOD platform by 2026,” analyst Simon Murray said in a statement.

Report: Asia Pacific to Top 630 Million Pay-TV Subs by 2026

New data from Digital TV Research found the Asia Pacific region will actually grow its pay-TV subscribers, expanding to 630 million by 2026, up from 609 million at end of 2020.

Driving growth in the region will be India, which will add 21 million subs, while China and India together will have nearly 500 million subs. Meanwhile, the number of TV households in the region will grow by 54 million to 979 million.

Driving the growth will be online TV, with IPTV subscribers overtaking cable in 2024. Online TV will add 51 million subs between 2020 and 2026 to take its total to 283 million. Digital and analog cable subscriptions will fall by 19 million and 13 million, respectively. The satellite TV sector will increase by 2 million subs to take the total to 83 million.

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While online TV sub growth surges, analyst Simon Murray says linear pay-TV remains in decline.

“Six countries will lose pay-TV subs between 2020 and 2026,” Murray said in a statement. “Most will be developed countries, but China is also included. China will fall by 10 million subscribers. This is cord-cutting, but represents only a 3% decline to 318 million.”

Report: Latin America to Have 116 Million SVOD Subs by 2026

With an influx of new subscription streaming video services such as HBO Max, Disney+ and Paramount+ entering Latin America, the region will have 116 million SVOD subscriptions by 2026 — up from the 53 million at end of 2020, according to new data from Digital TV Research. Brazil will contribute 44 million to the 2026 total, followed by Mexico with 29 million.

Five U.S.-based platforms Netflix, Amazon Prime Video, Disney+, Apple TV+ and HBO Max will account for 90% of the region’s paying SVOD subscriptions by end-2026.

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“There will be a wave of major SVOD platform launches in Latin America during 2021,” analyst Simon Murray said in a statement. “Paramount+ will start in March, followed by HBO Max and Star+ in June. Discovery+ is also expected expand in the region.”

Meanwhile, poorly-performing economies have hit Latin American pay-TV hard. The number of linear TV subs fell by 4 million in both 2019 and 2020. Venezuela dropped 2.4 million subs in 2020 alone, mainly due to DirecTV’s withdrawal from the market.

Across Latin America, the number of pay-TV subs peaked at 72.2 million in 2017. The total fell to 64.6 million by 2020. A small improvement is expected after 2023, with the 2026 total at 65.1 million subs.

“Brazil’s low point will be 2022, with only a small improvement expected from then,” Murray said. “The country peaked in 2014 with 19.6 million subscribers. We forecast 5.3 million fewer subscribers by 2026.”

Mexico has more pay-TV subscribers than Brazil despite having half as many TV households. Mexico has lost subscribers since its peak year of 2016, when it had 20.9 million. Mexico is not projected to cross the 20 million subscriber mark again until 2026.

Report: North American OTT Revenue to Reach $94 Billion by 2026

Over-the-top TV episode and movie revenue in U.S. and Canada will reach $94 billion in 2026; nearly twice as much as the $49 billion in 2020, according to new data from Digital TV Research. The United States — the world’s most mature OTT video market — will increase by $42 billion to $88 billion. Canada will double to $5.4 billion from $2.7 billion.

Among major OTT providers, Netflix ended 2020 with 73.9 million North American subscribers, including an estimated 16.7 million in Canada. Hulu ended 2020 with 35.4 million subs, while Disney+ totaled 94.9 million, of which 30% alone originate from India. ESPN+ tallied 12.1 million subs. CBS All Access (soon Paramount+) and Showtime OTT combined for 19.2 million, while HBO Max and Peacock totaled 17.2 million and 33 million, respectively. Amazon Prime Video ended 2019 with a reported 53.3 million subs.

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“SVOD and AVOD revenue will each increase by $22 billion between 2020 and 2026,” analyst Simon Murray said in a statement. “AVOD revenue will triple to $33 billion. SVOD will remain the main revenue source, supplying $54 billion by 2026.”

Analyst: North American Pay-TV Subs Dropping to 74 Million by 2026

The rise in over-the-top video consumption continues to undermine the pay-TV ecosystem. New data from Digital TV Research projects the number of pay-TV subscribers in Canada and the U.S. will fall by 43 million, from 116 million in 2010 to 74 million in 2026. The U.S. will lose 41 million subs, with Canada losing nearly 2 million.

The number of pay-TV subscribers plummeted by 27 million between 2010 and 2020, down by 6 million in both 2019 and 2020. Household pay-TV penetration will drop from 90.5% in 2010 to 53.6% by 2026. Revenue peaked in 2015 at $111 billion, falling by $49 billion to $62 billion in 2026.

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That said, the bloodletting appears to be over as subscriber levels decline, according to analyst Simon Murray.

“The worst of the cord-cutting is over,” Murray said. “Declines will be lower from 2021, falling by 16 million in total between 2020 and 2026.”

Murray contends “only” 5 million cable TV subscribers will be lost, while satellite TV declines by 7.5 million. Online TV will jettison 3.4 million subscribers.

 

Analyst: Disney+ to Overtake Netflix in Subscribers by 2026

In the rapidly changing home entertainment ecosystem, 2026 seems far away in the future. But that’s the time subscription streaming platform Disney+ is projected to pass Netflix in the number of subscribers, according to Digital TV Research.

The U.K. research group, which is basing its estimate on December 2020 fiscal results for Netflix and Disney, expects that the number of subscribers to Disney+ (294 million) will overtake Netflix (286 million) in five years. Much of that growth will be driven by India, the world’s second-largest country in population. Disney+ ended 2020 with 30% of its 95 million subs originating from India.

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Digital TV Research contends Disney Plus Hotstar will have 98 million Indian subscribers, compared with 13 million for Netflix.

“Disney+ Hotstar will roll out to 13 Asian countries by 2026,” analyst Simon Murray said in a statement. These countries will supply 108 million (37%) of the global Disney+ subscriber total, but only $2.62 billion (13%) of the platform’s revenue by 2026. Hotstar subscribers pay less than a third of the monthly subscription fee of their U.S. counterpart.”

Indeed, Murray believes global revenue for Disney+ will top $20.76 billion by 2026 — half of Netflix’s $39.52 billion.

Analyst: India, Cricket to Drive Disney+ Sub Growth

‘The Mandalorian” has met its match: Cricket. Both entertainment choices in the U.S. and India look to drive Disney+ global subscriber growth over the next five years.

Based on September 2020 results, Digital TV Research expects five global over-the-top video platforms to have 678 million paying subscribers by 2025. Disney+ will add 112 million subs between 2020 and 2025 to take its total to 194 million — about what had through Sept. 30. Netflix will increase by 73 million subs — underscoring strong growth even for the SVOD pioneer.

Driving Disney+ sub growth will be ongoing service launches in the U.S. and India — the latter accounting for 25% of the service’s subscribers through Sept. 30. Why? The sport of professional cricket played in India.

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When Disney acquired 21st Century Fox’s assets, it assumed control of Hotstar, India’s top OTT video platform. Over the summer Disney quietly launched Disney+ Hotstar in the region, in addition to further Disney+ expansion in Europe.

Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research, said initial sub growth at Disney+ came from the U.S., mainly due to the discounted price bundle of Disney+, ESPN+ and Hulu, and 12-month access for Verizon customers. More recently, India’s Disney+ Hotstar subs count has rocketed due to its coverage of IPL cricket.

“The U.S. and India will account for nearly half of Disney+’ subscriber base by 2025,” Murray said in a statement.

Meanwhile, Netflix’s revenue will reach $37 billion by 2025 — up by $17 billion on its 2019 total. Disney+ will generate $13 billion by 2025 — impressive since it only started service a year ago. However, this is a lot lower than Netflix due to lower ARPUs charged in developing markets.

Analyst: Global SVOD Revenue to Reach $100 Billion by 2025

New data from Digital TV Research contends SVOD revenue from 138 countries will top $100 billion by 2025, double the $50 billion recorded in 2019. SVOD revenue will top $1 billion in 16 countries by 2025 — up from eight countries in 2019.

As expected, streaming services Netflix, Disney+ and Amazon Prime Video will help sustain the U.S. as the global SVOD revenue leader — adding nearly $18 billion through 2025 to take the countries total to $42 billion. At the same time, the U.S. share of global SVOD revenue will decline to 42% from 49%.

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SVOD subscriptions will increase by 529 million through 2025 to 1.17 billion. China and the U.S. together will account for 51% of the global total. This is down from 63% in 2019 — suggesting SVOD growth in other countries is growing quickly.

Disney+ will be the biggest winner by adding 142 million subscribers between 2019 and 2025 to take its total to 172 million. Netflix will add 91 million subscribers to total 263 million.

“We believe that Disney+ will have a huge impact,” analyst Simon Murray said in a statement. “However, we have lowered our 2025 forecasts by 30 million since our May edition. Analysis of Disney’s June results showed a rapid deceleration in subscriber additions after an initial spike in its early launch countries. We expect this to be repeated elsewhere.”

By 2025, a third of the world’s TV households will have at least one SVOD subscription — up from a quarter at end-2019.

Analyst: SVOD Subs in U.S. to Increase 56% by 2025 — Despite Market Maturity

Despite approaching market saturation, the number of domestic SVOD subscriptions will climb from 203 million in 2019 to 317 million by 2025, according to new data from Digital TV Research.

Even Netflix, the longest established platform, will add 10 million domestic subs in the period. This growth is overshadowed by Disney+ (27 million additions) and Hulu (22 million). Peacock, HBO Max and CBS All Access/Paramount+ will each add more subs than Netflix — largely due to their breadth of content not found on the SVOD pioneer. Six platforms will together bring in 94 million new subscribers [82%] from the 114 million total additions.

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“The depth of choice in the U.S. will not be replicated in any other country,” analyst Simon Murray said in a statement. “Eight U.S. platforms will have more than 10 million paying subs each by 2025. Disney+ will overtake [Disney-owned] Hulu by 2025.”