Analyst: Global SVOD Revenue to Reach $100 Billion by 2025

New data from Digital TV Research contends SVOD revenue from 138 countries will top $100 billion by 2025, double the $50 billion recorded in 2019. SVOD revenue will top $1 billion in 16 countries by 2025 — up from eight countries in 2019.

As expected, streaming services Netflix, Disney+ and Amazon Prime Video will help sustain the U.S. as the global SVOD revenue leader — adding nearly $18 billion through 2025 to take the countries total to $42 billion. At the same time, the U.S. share of global SVOD revenue will decline to 42% from 49%.

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SVOD subscriptions will increase by 529 million through 2025 to 1.17 billion. China and the U.S. together will account for 51% of the global total. This is down from 63% in 2019 — suggesting SVOD growth in other countries is growing quickly.

Disney+ will be the biggest winner by adding 142 million subscribers between 2019 and 2025 to take its total to 172 million. Netflix will add 91 million subscribers to total 263 million.

“We believe that Disney+ will have a huge impact,” analyst Simon Murray said in a statement. “However, we have lowered our 2025 forecasts by 30 million since our May edition. Analysis of Disney’s June results showed a rapid deceleration in subscriber additions after an initial spike in its early launch countries. We expect this to be repeated elsewhere.”

By 2025, a third of the world’s TV households will have at least one SVOD subscription — up from a quarter at end-2019.

Analyst: SVOD Subs in U.S. to Increase 56% by 2025 — Despite Market Maturity

Despite approaching market saturation, the number of domestic SVOD subscriptions will climb from 203 million in 2019 to 317 million by 2025, according to new data from Digital TV Research.

Even Netflix, the longest established platform, will add 10 million domestic subs in the period. This growth is overshadowed by Disney+ (27 million additions) and Hulu (22 million). Peacock, HBO Max and CBS All Access/Paramount+ will each add more subs than Netflix — largely due to their breadth of content not found on the SVOD pioneer. Six platforms will together bring in 94 million new subscribers [82%] from the 114 million total additions.

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“The depth of choice in the U.S. will not be replicated in any other country,” analyst Simon Murray said in a statement. “Eight U.S. platforms will have more than 10 million paying subs each by 2025. Disney+ will overtake [Disney-owned] Hulu by 2025.”

Analyst: Western Europe to Double SVOD Subs by 2025

Spurred by Netflix, Disney+ and others, Western Europe will have 191 million SVOD subscriptions by 2025, more than double from 90 million at the end of 2019, according to new data from Digital TV Research. About 35 million subscribers will be added in 2020 alone, with the COVID-19 lockdown having a major effect.

Netflix will remain the largest platform, with 68.49 million paying subs expected by 2025. Despite adding 25 million subs between 2019 and 2025, Netflix will lose market share. How? Disney+, the SVOD platform launched in November 2019 in the U.S., and in Europe earlier this year.

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Disney+ has made a strong and immediate impact, given its brand recognition, low price and impressive content line-up. Disney+ launched in the remainder of Western European countries this month.

“Disney+ will have a huge impact. However, we have downgraded Disney+ since our last forecasts in April,” Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research, said in a statement. “After strong early take-up and based on its June results, subscriber growth will decelerate rapidly. We have increased our forecasts for the ‘other’ category due to the wave of launches due from the likes of Hulu, Paramount+ and Peacock.”

Analyst: Eastern Europe to Double SVOD Sub Base in Five Years

If there was any doubt that the subscription streaming video ecosystem isn’t global, new data from Digital TV Research lays that to rest.

Eastern Europe, led by Russia and Netflix, will have 26.42 million paying SVOD subscriptions by 2025, more than double the 10.26 million recorded by the end of 2019. From the 16 million additional subscriptions, Russia will generate 4.8 million to take its total to 8.8 million and Poland will add 5 million to total 8.7 million.

Netflix will continue to lead the Eastern European SVOD sector. Netflix will have 7.74 million subscribers by 2025, more than double its 2019 total.

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Disney+ will have 4.02 million subscribers by 2025, despite starting as recently as early 2021. Sister company Hulu may follow in key markets such as Poland. HBO already has a pay-TV presence in many countries, which can be used as a springboard for HBO Max.

“Russia became the SVOD subscription market leader in 2019 by overtaking Poland. Although it has plenty of home-grown players, Russia’s SVOD sector will remain held back by the limited presence of foreign platforms,” analyst Simon Murray said in a statement.

DTV: Asia Pacific to Add 467 Million SVOD Subs by 2025

Asia Pacific will have 467 million SVOD subscriptions by 2025, up from 267 million in 2019, according to new data from Digital TV Research. The London-based firm said China will contribute 279 million SVOD subscriptions in 2025 — or 60% of the region’s total. India will supply a further 66 million — triple its 2019 total.

Among the 200 million SVOD subscription additions between 2019 and 2025, China will supply 80 million, Japan 22 million and India 45 million. China will add 27 million SVOD subscribers in 2020 alone.

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“Although China dominates the region, there will be plenty of growth elsewhere,” analyst Simon Murray said in a statement. “Netflix will have 44.4 million subscribers by 2025; closely followed by Disney+ [including Hotstar] with 43.6 million.”

Analyst: Latin America to Reach 100 Million SVOD Subs by 2025 — Driven by U.S. Platforms

Latin America is projected to go all-in for subscription streaming video-on-demand, topping 100 million subscribers by 2025 — more than double the current 42.1 million subs at the end of 2019, according to new data from Digital TV Research. Sub growth will be driven by market leader Netflix, Disney+, Hulu, HBO Max and Amazon Prime Video.

Brazil, Netflix’s first foray into Latin America in 2011, will remain the market leader, with 36 million subs projected by 2025 — up from 16 million at the end of 2019. Mexico will reach 28 million subs by 2025, compared with 12 million last year.

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Netflix will continue to grow, but its dominance will decline. The SVOD behemoth will top 47.4 million subs; up from 31.4 million in 2019. Disney+ will grow rapidly following its November 2020 launch, with 25 million subs by 2025.

“Latin America will enjoy a wave of U.S.-based platform launches over the next year,” analyst Simon Murray said in a statement. “Hulu, HBO Max and ViacomCBS are all expected to start platforms in 2021. These launches come despite poor economic conditions driven by COVID-19.”

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U.S. Leads Global OTT Video Revenue Increases at $8.3 Billion

The surge in over-the-top video services, including SVOD and AVOD, is driving revenue worldwide for entertainment distribution. New data from Digital TV Research found global online TV episode and movie revenue increased 23.8% to $83 billion in 2019, up from $67 billion in 2018 and up 66% from $50 billion on 2017.

DTR said that of the $16 billion increase in OTT revenue in 2019, SVOD contributed to 75%, or $12 billion. SVOD’s share of OTT revenue reached 58% in 2019, up from 41% in 2015. SVOD revenue was $48 billion in 2019.

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“The U.S. added $8 billion in revenue in 2019 — half of the global additions, with China up by $1 billion,” Simon Murray, principal analyst at DTR, said in a statement.

From the 138 countries covered, the top five commanded 72% of the global revenue by 2019. OTT revenue exceeded $1 billion in 13 countries in 2019.

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Study: U.S. Retakes SVOD Sub Lead From China

Thanks to Netflix, the number of gross SVOD subscriptions grew by 28% in 2019. The net subscriber count rose by 55 million (16%) to total 403 million, according to new data from Digital TV Research. The firm said gross subscriptions are growing faster than net subscribers, which means the average SVOD subscriber paid for 1.59 subscriptions in 2019 — up from 1.44 in 2018.

The U.S. overtook China to regain its position as the gross SVOD subscription leader. With about 200 million subscribers each, China and the U.S. together accounted for 63% of the global total in 2019. The U.S. added 43 million subscriptions in 2019, with China up by 35 million.

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“The number of gross SVOD subscriptions increased by 139 million in 2019 to 642 million — having grown by a similar amount in 2018,” analyst Simon Murray said in a statement.

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Ten countries had more than 10 million SVOD subscriptions by the end of 2019 — collectively accounting for 84% of the global total.

Smartphones Boosting SVOD Subscriber Growth Globally

Not too long ago, Netflix’s Reed Hastings admitted the streamer wasn’t used much on smartphones. Now the co-founder/CEO thinks the platform’s next 100 million subscribers could come from India’s cellphone users.

New data from Digital TV Research contends the rest of the cellphone ecosystem is catching on. Smartphone SVOD subscriptions for 138 countries will double between 2019 and 2025 to 170 million. The total will climb by 25 million in 2020 alone.

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The net smartphone SVOD subscriber count will rise by 34 million through 2025 to 93 million — lower growth than gross subscriptions.

The average smartphone SVOD subscriber will pay for 1.83 services by 2025 — up from 1.45 in 2019. These figures are lower than for fixed broadband homes, which total about three SVOD subscriptions. Smartphone SVOD subs via mobile operators will reach 16% of the 582 million global SVOD subscribers by 2025; up from 14.6% of 403 million in 2019.

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Smartphone SVOD take-up will be highest in emerging markets, i.e. India, especially those with low fixed broadband penetration, where disposable incomes are limited.

“Our forecasts only cover subscriptions taken via a mobile operator, so they exclude direct SVOD subscriptions via a mobile app,” analyst Simon Murray said in a statement. “These forecasts could easily more than double if direct mobile SVOD subscriptions were included.”

Global Pay-TV to Add 35 Million Subs by 2025 — Driven by Online TV

Pay-TV consumption in the United States is declining, but globally, there’s still life in the distribution channel — thanks to online TV.

New data from London-based Digital TV Research suggests there will be 35 million new pay-TV subs through 2025, with the global base reaching 1.06 billion across more than 138 countries.

Driving growth is online TV, which includes platforms such as Sling TV, Hulu with Live TV, AT&T TV Now and YouTube TV in the United States. IPTV will add 84 million subs through 2025, topping 391 million. Online TV will grow its global market share in pay-TV from 30% in 2019 to 37% in 2025.

Satellite TV, which is projected to lose another 4 million subs through 2025, will generate 20% of pay-TV subs, down from 21% in 2019.
Cable will decline 7%, accounting for 40% of all pay-TV subs by 2025 — a near 50% drop from 74% market share in 2010. There will be 430 million cable TV subs (both analog and digital) by 2025, 101 million fewer than in 2010.

“Our forecasts are based on the assumption that professional sports will restart in August following relaxations in the COVID-19 lockdown,” analyst Simon Murray said in a statement. “If this does not happen, then pay-TV will experience considerable churn.”