Adobe: Online Winter Holiday Retail Sales to Increase Slightly

The upcoming online winter holiday retail period (Nov. 1 to Dec. 31) is expected to see sales inch up 2.5% as inflation worries and Amazon bumping up its annual Prime Day sales event to October undermine overall sales numbers, according to data analysis from Adobe Research.

The company contends that Cyber Monday (Nov. 28) will again top all online sales with $11.2 billion, up 5.1% from 2021. Post-Thanksgiving Black Friday (Nov. 25) online sales are expected to increase just 1% to $9 billion, while Thanksgiving sales are projected to decline 1% to $5.1 billion.

Adobe expects that sales discounts will hit record highs (upwards of 32%) this holiday season, as retailers contend with oversupply and softening consumer spending. Computers and consumer electronics will hit all-time highs: Discounts for computers are expected to be as high as 32% (up from 10% in 2021), while consumer electronics discounts are set to hit 27% (up from 8%). Other discount categories will include televisions at 19% (vs. 11% in 2021), apparel at 19% (vs. 13%), appliances at 18% (vs. 4%), sporting goods at 17% (vs. 6%), and furniture and bedding at 11% (vs. 2%).

The biggest discounts are expected to hit between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday. Thanksgiving Day will be the best day to shop for electronics, while Black Friday will have the best deals for televisions. That Saturday (Nov. 26) will have the biggest discounts for toys, with the best deals for apparel and sporting goods arriving on Sunday (Nov. 27). Those looking to buy a computer or furniture should shop on Cyber Monday, and appliances will see top discounts on Dec. 1.

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“The shape of the holiday season will look different this year, with early discounting in October pulling up spend that would have occurred around Cyber Week,” Patrick Brown, VP of growth marketing and insights at Adobe, said in a statement. “Even though we expect to see single-digit growth online this season, it is notable that consumers have already spent over $590 billion online this year (January to August), which is up 8.9% from last year, highlighting the resiliency of e-commerce demand.”

Major online sales categories include consumer electronics, as Adobe expects consumer electronics to drive $49.8 billion of online spending, up 2.9% from last year.