Report: Disney+ to Reach Less Than 50% of Netflix Sub Total by 2025

On the eve of the high-profile launch of the Disney+ streaming video platform, subscriber projections continue unabated.

New data from Digital TV Research suggests Disney+ will attract 101 million subs by 2025 — less than half of Netflix’s projected 228 million worldwide tally. The SVOD pioneer is expected to gain 70 million subs, including 6 million in the United States. Disney will grow subs significantly after launching service in Western Europe on March 31, 2020.

With Apple TV+ (with 27 million), Disney+ and WarnerMedia’s HBO Max (30 million) relying on promotions and partnerships to jumpstart subscriber retention in the U.S., subscriber gains abroad will be key, according to analyst Simon Murray.

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“Only 29% of Netflix’s subscribers will be in the U.S. by 2025,” Murray said in a statement. “The proportion will be as high as 80% for the younger HBO Max.”

Regardless, DTVR contends the five global services (including Amazon Prime Video and excluding domestic-based Hulu) will comprise 529 million subs by 2025.

“Competition is intense, with several platforms ‘reclaiming’ content from others and with price wars in place,” Murray said, adding the mature U.S. market remains the most important for all services.


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