May 15, 2018
Netflix is projected to top 201 million subscribers globally by 2023, according to new data from Digital TV Research. Netflix ended the first quarter (ended March 31) with 125 million subs, with company projections of more than 131 million subs by the end of June.
Netflix is anticipated to add 28 million subs in 2018 – representing the SVOD pioneer’s largest growth-year ever.
London-based Digtial TV Research said Netflix subs would top 77 million in North America by 2023 – which is nearly 20 million more than Netflix’s internal projection for the United States through June 30, excluding Canada.
“These forecasts are a lot higher than the last edition of this report,” Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research, said in a statement. “Similar to many other analysts, we underestimated [Netflix’s fast] take-up in international markets.”
Indeed, North America and Western Europe will together supply 62% of Netflix’s total sub base by 2023 – still dominant, but down from 76% in 2017. Asia Pacific will account for 14% of the 2023 total. This represents 28 million subs; quadruple the 2017 figure.
The top five countries (U.S., U.K., Brazil, Canada and Germany) will supply 53% of Netflix’s subs by 2023; down from 69% in 2017. Although the number of international subs overtook domestic subs in 2017, the U.S. will still contribute 44% of subs by 2023 – and will add 16 million subs between 2017 and 2023.
SVOD revenue will climb from $11.3 billion in 2017 to $28.8 billion in 2023. The top five countries will generate revenue of $16 billion in 2023 – or 56% of Netflix’s global subscription revenue. The U.S. will contribute $11.2 billion, with four other countries above $1 billion.