September 12, 2022
Western Europe is projected to reach 238 million subscription streaming video subscribers by 2027, up from 165 million at the end of 2021, according to data analysis from Digital TV Research. The sub growth would largely be driven by six U.S.-based platforms. which will account for 81% of all SVOD subscriptions by 2027.
Netflix will have 62 million subs by 2027 — 3 million more than in 2021. The SVOD pioneer’s subs will remain flat in 2022 due mainly to increased competition. Netflix’s share of the Western Europe subscriber total is projected to fall from 36% in 2021 to 26% by 2027.
Disney+ is projected to have 46 million subs by 2027 — 20 million more than 2021. Newcomer Paramount+/SkyShowtime is projected to add 11 million subs and HBO Max to bring in 5 million.
Western European SVOD revenue should total $25 billion by 2027 — up from $16 billion in 2021. The United Kingdom will remain the SVOD revenue leader.
“Netflix will slowly lose SVOD revenue as we assume that it will convert its cheapest tier to a lower-priced hybrid AVOD-SVOD tier,” analyst Simon Murray said in a statement. Murray contends that any SVOD revenue shortfall will be more than covered by newfound AVOD revenue. Netflix will remain the SVOD revenue winner, although its share of the total will fall from nearly 50% in 2021 to 33% in 2027.
“We do not expect many more price rises due to the intense competition,” he said in a statement. “We assume that Disney+ will follow its U.S. example by converting its present tier to a hybrid AVOD-SVOD one and charging more for an SVOD-only tier.”