September 15, 2022
The Asia-Pacific region is projected to have 746 million SVOD subscriptions by 2027, up from 541 million in 2021, according to data analysis from Digital TV Research. China would account for 364 million SVOD subscriptions — or 49% of the region’s total, according to the projections. India would add 92 million subs to reach 176 million.
Major U.S.-based platforms Netflix, Disney+, Paramount+, HBO Max, Prime Video and Apple TV+ are projected to account for only a quarter of the region’s SVOD subscriptions — much lower than in any other region in the world. Notably, Netflix generated its only global subscriber gains (1 million) in the Asia-Pacific region in the most-recent fiscal quarter, ended June 30.
“These platforms will never gain access to China, and India has plenty of local [streaming] players,” analyst Simon Murray said in a statement.
Disney+ overtook Netflix in total subscribers (when combined with Hulu and ESPN+) in 2020 — almost entirely due to its success in India. Disney+ Hotstar reshaped the SVOD landscape in India, mainly by controlling the rights to India Premier League cricket. Disney+ Hotstar did not retain those rights. The platform will lose 4.5 million subscribers in 2022 and 10 million in 2023 before plateauing, according to Digital TV Research.
Assuming that Disney+ retained the IPL rights in India, the previous forecasts estimated 127 million Disney+ subscribers across the region by 2027.
“Our revised forecasts predict 66 million by 2027 — 61 million less than before,” Murray wrote in the report.