March 16, 2020
After nearly doubling its U.S. user base last year, growth for TikTok, a Chinese video-sharing social networking service, will slow in the coming years as competition heats up and concerns grow among marketers, according to new data from eMarketer.
TikTok’s domestic U.S. user base will grow 21.9% in 2020 to 45.4 million people. By 2021, it will surpass 50 million (52.2 million). This follows 97.5% growth in 2019, as the short-form video platform drew in a huge number of users, especially children and teens. Growth will slow to single digits in 2022 as the app becomes heavily saturated among core younger users.
“TikTok had a breakout year in 2019, and it is incredibly popular among teens at this point,” analyst Debra Aho Williamson said in a statement. “Some are spending multiple hours per day on the app, which is a testament to the incredible stickiness of its scrolling video format. But it has yet to develop a strong following among older generations.”
This year, 21.6% of U.S. social network users, or more than one in five, will use TikTok at least once a month. Despite having lower penetration than more established competitors, it’s one of the few social apps whose penetration is growing.