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Analyst: Netflix to Add 4 Million Subs in Q1, Topping Projections

Netflix is projected to have added around 4 million subscribers worldwide in the first quarter (ended March 31) — topping company estimates of 2.5 million new subs globally, according to J.P. Morgan analyst Doug Anmuth, who cited data from Apptopia global downloads.

If correct, the additions would send Netflix’s global subscriber base above 226 million — tops for all SVOD services worldwide.

“Based on our discussions with investors, we believe expectations for Q1 net adds are 3 million before Russia [boycott], or 1 million — 2 million post Russia,” Anmuth wrote in an April 7 note.

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The analyst expects Netflix to add around 1 million subs in the current second quarter, ending June 30, which would fall below last year’s gain of 1.54 million subs. Anmuth contends Q2 is traditionally a slow period for Netflix, with potential new subscribers opting instead to travel rather than pay higher subscription fees.

At the same time, the analyst said Netflix is streaming new seasons of “Elite,” “Ozark,” “Stranger Things” and “The Umbrella Academy.” In addition, the second season of “Bridgerton” broke the record for first-week viewing of English-language programming, with more than 252 million hours streamed.

“Despite a muted first half of the year, we are positive on shares overall, and expect stronger subscriber trajectory in the back half [of the year], and beyond with greater distance from both the pandemic, this year’s early price increases, and increased contribution from the Asia-Pacific, Europe, Middle East and Africa regions,” Anmuth wrote.

Netflix reports Q1 fiscal results on April 19.

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