July 24, 2019
Expect an increase in Marvel-related content by Disney across all distribution channels, including the branded $6.99 Disney+ subscription streaming video platform launching on Nov. 12.
The latter strategy could lead to Disney doubling its earnings by 2024, according to Benjamin Swinburne, analyst at Morgan Stanley.
Indeed, Marvel Studios — not Disney — was on major display at the recent San Diego Comic-Con 2019.
The studio’s panel presentation featured surprise appearances by Oscar winners Natalie Portman and Mahershala Ali touting their separate roles in upcoming movies (Thor: Love and Thunder and Blade) reportedly generated some of the confab’s biggest buzz.
To Swinburne, Marvel’s outsized presence on Disney+ could help double Disney’s stock earnings from $6.50 per share in fiscal 2020 to upwards of $12 per share in 2024.
“For all the complexities of Disney’s business model transition and the stock’s investment case, the durability of its content underpins everything,” Swinburne wrote in a note.
Specifically, the analyst contends Marvel has successfully transcended the narrowly defined superhero genre to mass appeal.
Swinburne cites this year’s theatrical release Avengers: Endgame, last year’s release, Captain Marvel, and pending Disney+ exclusives, “The Falcon and The Winter Soldier,” starring Anthony Mackie, Sebastian Stan and Daniel Brühl; “WandaVision,” featuring Elizabeth Olsen and Paul Bettany; “Loki” with Tom Hiddleston, and “Hawkeye,” starring Jeremy Renner, among others, as proof of Marvel’s expanding impact on Disney investors.
With Disney+ targeting 60 million to 90 million subs globally by 2024, the analyst contends more than 60% of that subscriber base will come from Marvel’s growing worldwide appeal.
“Marvel has broken beyond fanboy demand to mass market,” Swinburne wrote, adding the aforementioned streaming series will “lock in Marvel fans between theatrical releases.”