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Analyst Gives Thumbs-Up to Netflix Ads, Shrugs Off Account Sharing

Following the market’s outsized reaction to Netflix’s underwhelming first quarter results, including a net loss of 200,000 subscribers, the SVOD pioneer put in motion two initiatives designed to generate incremental revenue: Charging subs extra for sharing accounts and a less expensive ad-supported subscription plan.

Selling ads on the backs of Netflix’s 220 million global subscribers is being embraced by Wall Street as a legitimate revenue driver. Jason Bazinet, media analyst with Citi, believes the move could jumpstart subscriber growth and improve the fiscal bottom line.

“We believe an ad-based tier — which we expect in 2023 — will allow Netflix to resume sub growth and help narrow the ~$5 billion gap between [free cash flow] and net income,” Bazinet wrote in a note.

Citi analyst Jason Bazinet

Free cash remains a bone of contention among some Netflix analysts (notably Wedbush Securities’ Michael Pachter] who suggest the service spends too much money on content, among other costs.

Bazinet believes Netflix could generate $10 monthly from ad-supported U.S. subs and $3 monthly worldwide. The analyst says the ad-supported subscription plan could yield upwards of $3.6 billion in additional free cash flow from new subs, and $3.1 billion should existing subs downgrade to the estimated new $5.99 monthly ad-supported price point.

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“[This would] still generate incremental revenue from basic subs that spin down to a lower cost version,” Bazinet wrote.

The analyst doesn’t give much support to Netflix idea to charge existing subs an incremental fee when sharing account passwords. The concept is currently being tested in select markets globally.

The move is “unlikely to improve [churn] beyond current levels,” Bazinet wrote.

A separate report by The Information suggested Netflix could bump revenue up 21% with an ad-supported subscription option.

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