February 15, 2021
In the rapidly changing home entertainment ecosystem, 2026 seems far away in the future. But that’s the time subscription streaming platform Disney+ is projected to pass Netflix in the number of subscribers, according to Digital TV Research.
The U.K. research group, which is basing its estimate on December 2020 fiscal results for Netflix and Disney, expects that the number of subscribers to Disney+ (294 million) will overtake Netflix (286 million) in five years. Much of that growth will be driven by India, the world’s second-largest country in population. Disney+ ended 2020 with 30% of its 95 million subs originating from India.
Digital TV Research contends Disney Plus Hotstar will have 98 million Indian subscribers, compared with 13 million for Netflix.
“Disney+ Hotstar will roll out to 13 Asian countries by 2026,” analyst Simon Murray said in a statement. These countries will supply 108 million (37%) of the global Disney+ subscriber total, but only $2.62 billion (13%) of the platform’s revenue by 2026. Hotstar subscribers pay less than a third of the monthly subscription fee of their U.S. counterpart.”
Indeed, Murray believes global revenue for Disney+ will top $20.76 billion by 2026 — half of Netflix’s $39.52 billion.