Analyst: Box Office Trending Down 71%

Despite optimism on behalf of some national theatrical chains, the 2020 box office continues to be hammered by the effects of the coronavirus pandemic mandating closure of most screens in the United States and worldwide.

New data from Wedbush Securities in Los Angeles contends the box office through the first half of the year is down 71% from the same period in 2019 — a trend that won’t improve anytime soon as studios further delay new releases due to ongoing spikes in COVID-19 infections.

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Indeed, the second-quarter box office flatlined down 99.9% year-over-year to $3.69 million, compared with Wedbush’s most-recent estimate down 99.4% year-over-year, as most domestic theaters remained closed throughout the quarter.

While major chains such AMC Theatres, Regal Cinemas and Cinemark are eyeing qualified return to normal with Warner Bros.’ Tenet on Aug. 12, followed by Disney’s Mulan on Aug. 21, senior media analyst Michael Pachter believes consumers will remain reluctant to frequent cineplexes until their is a virus vaccine or downturn in infections.

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“While there are clearly many who are eager to return to some level of normalcy, there are still many more who we think will remain reluctant to attend the movies before there is a vaccine, or if the transmission rate falls significantly before then,” Pachter wrote in a note. “Simply stated, we do not expect attendance levels to begin to normalize until the end of the year at the earliest.”

Regardless, AMC reportedly has staved off possible bankruptcy in a deal The Wall Street Journal reported with a private equity group.

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